A Calculated Risk: Netanyahu’s War on Hezbollah Aims for a Greater Peace

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war on Hezbollah appears to have been a calculated risk aimed at achieving a much larger strategic goal: peace with Lebanon and Syria. In a statement on Sunday, he framed the recent conflict as a successful, if costly, maneuver that has created the conditions for historic diplomatic breakthroughs.
The calculation seems to have paid off most clearly with Syria. The removal of Bashar al-Assad, a key Hezbollah ally, has allowed his successors to enter into direct peace talks with Israel. A Syrian official has even suggested that these negotiations could culminate in signed security agreements by the end of this year.
In Lebanon, the risk is still playing out. Israel continues to strike Hezbollah assets despite a ceasefire, a sign that it believes the group is not yet neutralized. However, this military pressure has coincided with the Lebanese government’s first concrete moves to disarm the militia, a long-sought objective of Israel and the West.
“The possibility of peace with our northern neighbours… was not even imagined before our recent operations and actions,” Netanyahu stated, justifying the risks taken. He confirmed that talks with Syria are making “some progress,” indicating that his strategic gamble is yielding diplomatic dividends.
The results of this calculated risk are becoming visible. The new Syrian government is negotiating an Israeli withdrawal from recently occupied territories in exchange for a demilitarized zone. The Lebanese government has announced a three-month plan to begin disarming Hezbollah fighters near the Israeli border, a move that could fundamentally change the security situation.